War and the Trump Factor

Abbas Goya - March 1, 2026

In addition to the three components previously outlined in "A Socialist Position on the War” — namely, the support of a section of society for a U.S.–Israel attack on Iran, the so-called Twelve-Day War, and the January uprising — one must point to another catalyst that has played a decisive role both in the Twelve-Day War and in the formation of the current military offensive: Trumpism.

Trumpism is not a predetermined doctrine; rather, it is Trump’s method of governing and a set of spontaneous practices within the framework of ultra-right politics. They do not belong to the conventional methods of either the Democratic or Republican parties. The constituent elements of Trumpism are not even pre-defined for Trump himself. Its defining features, however, include “deal-making” in place of diplomacy, bluffing and lying to a pathological degree, threats, impulsive, and unpredictable conduct. Such behavior may be ordinary and routine in the marketplace of business, but the art of mainstream politics is to sugarcoat and present the same elements as something palatable.

In terms of political content, Trumpism is not rootless. It belongs to the political tradition of the ultra-right. He stole his central slogan — MAGA, “Make America Great Again” — from Reagan. Yet through his conduct, Trump has redefined aggressive nationalism and normalized the language of threat and unconventional, unpredictable behavior at the highest levels of the state apparatus.

Trumpism is perhaps a futile attempt to prevent the decline of the United States as a superpower, and along this path it does not refrain from sacrificing even those countries for which it was supposed to act as big brother. US's increasing unreliability has apparently unsettled the Prime Minister of Canada and the Chancellor of Germany to the point that they are contemplating “independence.” This entire constellation forms part of both the subjective and practical groundwork of the current military confrontation in Iran as well.

For this reason, I am not certain that if the Democrats were in power in the United States, the Twelve-Day War would have occurred. But I am certain that under their administration the present offensive, at least in its current form, would by no means have taken place. By this I do not mean the fact of the offensive itself, the military configuration, or the manner in which the American campaign is being conducted. I mean Trump’s impulsive conduct. 

Trump apparently has no clear strategy. He says he can end the war within a day or two, or prolong it considerably. He declares regime change to be the goal of the military offensive, yet if some configuration of an “Islamic Republic without Khamenei” were to submit to his conditions — conditions that are themselves fluid — he would have achieved his objective. Trumpism is fluid.

Trump has not specified a concrete alternative to replace the Islamic Republic. What array of options lies on the US table is another matter. The point is the absence of a definite alternative. If the Islamic Republic, in its current composition, were to comply with him, he would end the offensive “within a day or two.” If not, he would continue it to the point of collapse, without any guarantee of a defined alternative.

Is Trump deliberately seeking to create a power vacuum, or has he embarked on a gamble akin to the one Carter made? In the context of the Cold War, Carter, by supporting Islamists, demonstrated that in his opposition to communism he was prepared to accept unknown, and potentially hostile, relations between political Islam and the United States — yet he did not accept a power vacuum. Trump’s conduct, while similar in its gamble with unknown forces, is different. Simultaneously with launching an attack, he calls upon the people to go and seize power! What exactly does he mean, and to whom is he speaking?

Whatever the case, open celebration and dancing in the streets over Khamenei’s death testify that society stands on the threshold of dual power.

Regardless of whom Trump is addressing with his call, his gamble in creating a power vacuum constitutes the entire window of opportunity that the street needs to move toward seizing political power. Provided that workers and activists of worker-socialists are prepared for that day, the prospect of a better world will stand before society. Otherwise, Iran’s near future will become dark and grim to varying degrees.

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