"Trump's first mistake was starting the war. His next mistake may be to let Iran win"

Abbas Goya- March 27, 2026

The above title was the headline of an article in Canada’s Globe and Mail -+ March 23, Tony Keller-- that succinctly expresses the stance of the U.S. ruling class--and the West in general--regarding the war. 

Regardless of the United States’ initial objectives in starting the war, which have certainly changed, and despite the severe damage inflicted on the air and naval forces of the Islamic Republic, as well as the killing of Khamenei and several of Iran’s highest-ranking military and political officials, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the IRGC’s missile strikes on Gulf countries have become Iran’s trump cards against the U.S. To the point that today the United States is faced with either retreat or escalation of the war to more violent levels. Trump’s farcical talk of “negotiations” with Iran can be seen in the 15-point and 5-point lists of demands from the two sides. The gap between these conflicting demands can only be measured in light-years; agreement at present is impossible.

Now, if we add the “Trump factor” to the above equation, both retreat and escalation remain likely scenarios. If the U.S. retreats, the current phase of the war will effectively mean a defeat for America, and the Islamic Republic will undoubtedly move toward building a nuclear bomb--something that will, in turn, serve as a pretext for a new round of war in the future. A war that ends without achieving its objectives is an unfinished war, and a U.S. retreat today will be followed by another round of conflict down the road.

If the war continues, its scale will undoubtedly expand significantly, bringing humanitarian disasters, mass killings, displacement, and many other tragedies. Its economic pressure will also be felt across the globe; after all, we live in an era of a global village and deeply interconnected capital across the planet.

Given the above conditions, in both scenarios—whether a temporary end to the war or its continuation—what will be the outcome for the repression of the people of Iran, especially the working classes? What tasks will each of these two scenarios place on the agenda of socialists?