The Most Likely Scenario: An Opportunity That Must Not Be Missed.

 Abbas Goya – February 12, 2026

Black ThuFriday, on the 8th and 9th of January, with the massacre of (tens) of thousands, has provided the U.S. with a rare pretext to advance its disputes with Iran. This catastrophe did not intimidate the citizens, but in the absence of an organized working-class alternative, it has driven them into a state of desperation in which they neither pin their hopes on a U.S. military attack nor necessarily stand against it. Black ThuFriday and its perpetrator, the Islamic Republic, are indefensible to anyone; and this is precisely the reality on which the U.S. is counting. The “friends” of the Islamic government pass over U.S. military threats either in silence or with ineffectual grumbling. Today even NATO-member Turkey and Saudi Arabia, America’s long-standing ally, appear more concerned than China and Russia about a U.S. military attack on Iran.

Despite the war propaganda of both sides of the affair and the extensive and unprecedented mobilization of U.S. military forces in the Middle East, workers in the West have shown little inclination to form a broad anti-war movement. What will likely take shape is not a mass anti-war movement, but the resistance of the remnants of political Islam and the support of a segment of pro-Islamic anti-imperialists in the West. In Iran’s political arena as well, the equivalent of this spectrum can be seen on the margins of politics; the hardline nationalist Tudeh–Majority supporters.

What is America’s objective?

One cannot be more Catholic than the Pope; they openly speak of a “good deal” with Iran. In simple terms, the probable objective of the U.S. is the transformation of the Islamic Republic to a conventional regime. Washington avoids any tension that would lead to uncontrollable instability and hence the independent intervention of wage earners in politics. Most likely, negotiations are already underway; not merely what we see at the official level at the nuclear table, but also talks with moderates and "reformists" within the Islamic Republic structure. Is such a project feasible? If Khamenei is removed in any way, would the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij resist, or fall into division and turmoil? We do not have definitive tools to answer; but it is obvious that containing these forces would be part of any transformation scenario.

Regardless of America’s assessment, from the recent statements of the IRI official authorities—including the emphasis on not a step retreat and the legitimacy of war for the right to enrichment—it can be understood that the Islamic Republic, too, welcomes military confrontation; perhaps it sees it as a way out of its comprehensive deadlocks.

What is the working-class position?

The position is not a fanciful anti-war stance or merely pacifism at any price. What is underway is not “war”; if a military confrontation occurs, it will be calculated and with specific political objectives for reshaping the regime. The aim of the West is to contain or defang political Islam, not to liberate Iran’s poor. Contrary to the woe woe flag carriers of Tudehist and Islamist forces, such a confrontation—if it occurs—will not spiral out of the control of the parties; just as in the past two decades confrontations have been contained within defined frameworks. The scope of attacks and the lines of retreat will be predefined.

Our task, however, is to disrupt precisely this pre-engineered equation. The US and the advocates of transformation believe they can alter the Islamic Republic while simultaneously keeping society calm; build a paradise for the flourishing of capital on the back of cheap labor, merely with a few superficial reforms. In the face of this project, one must expose the deceit of both sides of the deal and turn the anger of workers—who on Black ThuFriday have given tens of thousands killed, wounded, and imprisoned—into a force to shatter their imaginary island of calm, into class war for the purpose of seizing political power.

Perhaps this goal seems ambitious. But this very “big stone” can be lifted through class unity and by relying on the internationalist solidarity of the workers of the world. Yes, we seek the “foreign” intervention of the workers of the world. Even if our chance of advancing toward political power is small, that small measure is still enough to make the effort worthwhile.

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